How to manipulate people into choosing the worst option

When we are choosing which natural action to take , one of the most basic calculations which steer us is , “ How likely is it to lead to one selection or another . ” We need to guess of all possible result , and the approximative chance of each one occur . There is a problem with this . We are not peachy at valuate chance . But there are certain manner to make us think that one upshot is more probable than another .

Add a trivial description , especially whenthat description fits in with predetermined depiction , and masses will chuck chance out the windowpane . For example , give most people a choice between “ Bob owns three gunslinger ” and “ Bob owns three heavy weapon and hunts deer , ” and they will probably opt the latter as the more potential option . This ca n’t possibly be true . Both bob own three guns , and imposing more conditions on one of them only pee-pee their state of affairs less likely . But it fits in with a stereotype of gun owners , and so people believe it “ more . ”

How stereotypes really do cloud your judgment

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As it change state out , this does n’t just process when applied to people . It also works when applied to situations . When Paula Jones brought a causa against sitting President Clinton , it did n’t take long for hypothesis to start about how it would ferment out . A radical of 200 lawyers was asked to bode how the trial would end ; some were asked introductory stuff , like would the trial reach a conclusion , or would it be halt prematurely for some reasonableness . Others were ask to break down a list of reasons why it might be hold on prematurely , and then to auspicate whether the trial would go to conclusion . The lawyers who get a list of possible reason why the visitation would be bar thought that a premature destruction to the test was much more probable than the lawyers who were only take if the trial would reach a conclusion or if it would not .

This is n’t clinch proof , of course of instruction . The lawyer who received a list , being remind of all the ways the tryout could be end , might have had a dependable estimation as to how the test would go . But it happens with doctors as well . If a disease has multiple symptom , some coarse and some uncommon , follow doctors consider that the rare symptom alone was less likely than the rarified symptom and the common one flux . When looking at staring probability , more factors stand for something is less probable , but we immediately think of more factors being more likely .

In the end , what we desire is a pictorial verbal description . If we can see Bob and his guns , or the many result of a trial , or a affected role displaying all the symptom of a disease , the idea attains a reality for us . Or for whoever we ’re account it too . This means that , if we desire to manipulate people , all we need to do is present them with many pick , some redundant but likely , others high elaborate but unlikely . Even as we heap idea on idea , making the probability less and less likely , it will seem more and more probable to whoever we ’re pull wires . They can make a free alternative , but it ’s biased in our favor .

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